Tue, Mar 15, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 3, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 210 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 332 |
| WSH | 19 | 07 | 29 | 07 | 2 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:21WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 4:55NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 17:02NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 10:13WSHAxel Jonsson-FjallbyAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 15:02WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 18:01NYIAnders LeeAssists: Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 2. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 3. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 4. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom stopped
- 5. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 6. NYI Kyle Palmieri scored
- 7. WSH Daniel Sprong stopped
- 8. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 9. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 10. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 11. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 12. NYI Noah Dobson stopped
- 13. WSH Trevor van Riemsdyk stopped
- 14. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 15. WSH Anthony Mantha scored
- 16. NYI Anders Lee stopped
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:55WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 6:04WSHAlex Ovechkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:04NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas12:00
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier12:53
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom9:43
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau11:10
xG 0.25–0.86 (23%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech2:48
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Pulock2:21
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Dobson17:53
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Sprong – McMichael10:58
xG 0.85–0.11 (89%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary12:05
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Dowd – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby9:09
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha14:09
xG 0.12–0.38 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen15:30
xG 0.98–0.21 (82%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk14:33
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry18:29
xG 0.40–0.59 (41%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).