Tue, Mar 15, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 112 | 219 | 338 |
| WPG | 29 | 37 | 27 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:08WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Paul Stastny, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:41WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:49VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Zach Whitecloud, William Carrier · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 9:04WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 11:09WPGLogan StanleyGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 18:25WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 4:34VGKAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Nolan Patrick, Dylan Coghlan · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 9:31VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Jake Leschyshyn · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 10:33WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 13:34WPGAdam LowrySHAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:45WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:45VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:17VGKEvgenii Dadonov: Holding2 min
- P3 4:08WPGBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:41VGKWilliam Carrier: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:29VGKJonathan Marchessault: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:29VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:34WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Eichel12:40
xG 0.97–0.39 (71%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Amadio – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg9:00
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Kolesar – Patrick6:24
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Carrier – Roy9:47
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague14:44
xG 0.84–0.42 (67%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Pachal2:24
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Coghlan – Pachal4:54
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Scheifele14:20
xG 0.78–0.62 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois12:21
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Toninato – Brooks – Vesalainen6:31
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Lowry – Harkins – Svechnikov10:46
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schmidt – Stanley12:31
xG 0.66–0.78 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 3–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:23
xG 0.21–0.74 (22%)attempts 9–18goals 1–2
- Dillon – Pionk17:01
xG 0.24–0.84 (23%)attempts 7–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).