Wed, Mar 16, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Boston Bruins 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 19 | 09 | 226 |
| MIN | 28 | 07 | 219 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:28MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 16:59BOSCraig SmithAssists: Trent Frederic, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 1:49BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 7:56MINJordan GreenwayGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:55MINRyan HartmanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:40BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:54BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:54MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:41BOSErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:04MINJordan Greenway: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:15MINKirill Kaprizov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18BOSCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:38BOSCraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:38MINJon Merrill: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hall – Pastrnak10:22
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic11:41
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
- Foligno – Blidh – Lazar7:23
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Marchand – Nosek – DeBrusk11:37
xG 0.37–1.02 (27%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Grzelcyk – Carlo14:41
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Reilly – McAvoy14:07
xG 0.58–0.74 (44%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Forbort – Clifton15:14
xG 0.24–0.89 (21%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:40
xG 0.91–0.10 (90%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:55
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:32
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Jost – Duhaime6:40
xG 0.02–0.21 (10%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon14:09
xG 1.12–0.17 (87%)attempts 21–5goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Merrill15:09
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:21
xG 0.62–0.70 (47%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).