Wed, Mar 16, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 115 | 18 | 333 |
| CGY | 211 | 313 | 116 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Dillon Dube, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:21NJDDawson MercerAssists: Tomas Tatar, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:22CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Chris Tanev, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 5:01NJDP.K. SubbanAssists: Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 7:04CGYDillon DubeAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 9:31CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 10:33CGYMilan LucicAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 3:51NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 17:30CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:22CGYNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:38CGYBrett Ritchie: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGeertsen – Bastian – McLeod3:00
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vesey – Bastian – Boqvist8:41
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Bratt – Sharangovich – Hughes9:56
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer11:00
xG 0.24–1.20 (17%)attempts 7–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – White3:49
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Subban – Smith6:51
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Severson – White2:03
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:01
xG 1.10–0.33 (77%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Monahan – Mangiapane10:05
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman10:38
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Dube10:52
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington14:37
xG 1.20–0.19 (87%)attempts 24–8goals 2–2
- Hanifin – Andersson17:19
xG 0.99–0.62 (62%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov15:03
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).