Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 110 | 19 | 14 | 435 |
| MTL | 09 | 110 | 27 | 05 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:33DALRadek FaksaAssists: Michael Raffl, Alexander Radulov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 9:36MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:51DALJamie BennAssists: Esa Lindell, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 8:52MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 12:47MTLCorey SchuenemanAssists: Rem Pitlick, Laurent Dauphin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 15:14DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jamie Benn, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 4:50DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:38DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P1 9:37MTLLaurent Dauphin: Interference2 min
- P1 11:33DALRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P2 9:29DALMarián Studenic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:47MTLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:26MTLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P3 5:22DALRadek Faksa: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:44DALJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:44MTLLaurent Dauphin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:41MTLJoel Armia: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 2:19DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:31
xG 1.45–0.53 (73%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Raffl6:14
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Benn – Gurianov – Studenic3:54
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Seguin – Glendening – Peterson5:24
xG 0.07–0.40 (16%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Harley14:08
xG 1.25–0.66 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Hanley8:51
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Lindell10:25
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Dauphin – Pitlick12:16
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Armia – Suzuki – Caufield9:59
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Byron – Evans – Pezzetta5:55
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Lehkonen – Dvorak7:33
xG 0.02–0.61 (3%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulak – Schueneman2:20
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Schueneman7:06
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Kulak – Romanov12:43
xG 0.44–0.64 (40%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).