Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Nashville Predators 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 38 | 115 | 434 |
| PHI | 117 | 211 | 25 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44PHITravis SanheimUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:23NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:22PHICam YorkPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:48PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Cam Atkinson, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 5:16NSHPhilippe MyersAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 16:05NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 1:11NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 15:45PHIKevin HayesAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Deflected, 0.24 xG4–4
- P3 18:41PHIJoel FarabeeGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:00PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:00NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:52NSHRoman Josi: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:29NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P1 11:07PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:13NSHMatt Duchene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:03NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:26PHIZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:08PHITravis Konecny: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 14:17NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:17PHIJoel Farabee: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Forsberg8:39
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot11:51
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen9:37
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Cousins – McCarron – Tomasino6:14
xG 0.18–0.65 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro2:02
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Myers8:41
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro2:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Willman – MacEwen6:47
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Giroux – Konecny – Frost11:20
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Brassard – van Riemsdyk – Atkinson7:39
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Hayes – Lindblom – Farabee9:38
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York7:37
xG 0.74–0.11 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:19
xG 1.04–0.88 (54%)attempts 18–19goals 2–1
- Yandle – York5:14
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).