Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 215 | 311 | 734 |
| CBJ | 013 | 117 | 111 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:20WSHAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 1:20WSHMartin FehérváryGWGAssists: Daniel Sprong, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 6:57CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Max Domi · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 10:44WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Conor Sheary, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 1:47CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Zach Werenski, Andrew Peeke · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 4:15WSHConnor McMichaelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–2
- P3 7:21WSHConor ShearyENAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.76 xG6–2
- P3 9:03WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.08 xG7–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 15:26CBJSean Kuraly: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:36WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P2 3:35CBJSean Kuraly: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 3:35CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:35WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:37WSHAnthony Mantha: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 9:44CBJJack Roslovic: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:19WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P2 16:30WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:57CBJJack Roslovic: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:57WSHNic Dowd: Embellishment2 min
- P3 8:12CBJJakub Voracek: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:22WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:28CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Sprong – McMichael7:04
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha6:50
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary7:48
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Dowd – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby9:02
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk9:44
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Schultz – Orlov3:47
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry10:43
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger3:05
xG 0.41–0.32 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Roslovic – Laine9:04
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Sillinger4:40
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Voracek – Danforth – Chinakhov6:18
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlsson – Kukan9:03
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Werenski – Peeke11:57
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Peeke – Bean3:29
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).