Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 117 | 015 | 04 | 1 | 345 |
| STL | 08 | 16 | 17 | 04 | 0 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:42PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Radim Zohorna · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 10:52PITMike MathesonAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, John Marino · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 16:55STLDavid PerronAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 1:49STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 2. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 3. STL David Perron stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 6. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 7. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 8. PIT Bryan Rust scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:09PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:35PITJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:58STLMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:30PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:34STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:06STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:54PITDominik Simon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:11PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P3 10:06STLIvan Barbashev: Slashing2 min
- OT 5:00STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kapanen – Zohorna8:14
xG 0.49–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues10:20
xG 0.80–0.44 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Malkin – Rust – Heinen8:56
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Boyle – Blueger – Simon7:10
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Marino13:31
xG 1.13–0.31 (78%)attempts 25–4goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin11:37
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson8:51
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Saad – Sundqvist – Barbashev3:45
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Kyrou4:46
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou3:38
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Barbashev – Brown2:33
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Parayko13:11
xG 0.75–0.81 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Parayko – Mikkola2:36
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Parayko2:21
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).