Thu, Mar 17, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Florida Panthers 3, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 116 | 112 | 18 | 336 |
| VGK | 114 | 26 | 213 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:09VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Michael Amadio, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:38VGKEvgenii DadonovAssists: Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 14:32VGKEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:38FLASam BennettAssists: Anthony Duclair, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 12:26FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 13:23VGKNicolas RoyGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 18:10VGKWilliam KarlssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:31FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P2 14:26FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:50VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:23FLAAnthony Duclair: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 13:23FLAAnthony Duclair: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Hornqvist – Acciari3:57
xG 0.86–0.36 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett11:11
xG 0.58–0.13 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Verhaeghe – Barkov2:14
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment2:19
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad19:19
xG 1.56–0.97 (62%)attempts 25–16goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling13:26
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Montour – Forsling2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Janmark – Patrick5:39
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Eichel9:21
xG 0.30–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Karlsson – Marchessault4:29
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Janmark – Amadio – Patrick2:22
xG 0.01–0.04 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Coghlan13:36
xG 0.99–0.66 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Theodore – Whitecloud15:53
xG 0.78–0.58 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Whitecloud3:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).