Fri, Mar 18, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 19 | 011 | 129 |
| OTT | 111 | 012 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:45OTTTim StützleAssists: Alex Formenton, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:10PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Justin Braun, James van Riemsdyk · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 9:16OTTJosh NorrisPPGWGAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Connor Brown · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 17:22OTTAlex FormentonENAssists: Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:03OTTErik Brannstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:58OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:55PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 7:01OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:01PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:30OTTAlex Formenton: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:30PHIJustin Braun: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:44PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:58PHIPatrick Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:33OTTAustin Watson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Gambrell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Mayhew – Farabee4:53
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – van Riemsdyk – Atkinson8:23
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Lindblom – Mayhew – Frost2:18
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee3:57
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Braun2:16
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Provorov – York4:26
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – York6:09
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Formenton – Stützle9:28
xG 1.04–0.18 (85%)attempts 21–5goals 1–1
- White – Norris – Tkachuk10:35
xG 0.61–0.13 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell9:40
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Gaudette4:32
xG 0.12–0.33 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev15:21
xG 1.03–0.32 (77%)attempts 27–10goals 1–1
- Brannstrom – Zub16:32
xG 1.10–0.46 (71%)attempts 28–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Mete9:21
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).