Fri, Mar 18, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 210 | 19 | 529 |
| SJS | 07 | 110 | 211 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:18COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:14COLDarren HelmAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 0:34COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 15:29COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–0
- P2 19:19SJSJeffrey VielAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Nicolas Meloche · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 13:02SJSRudolfs BalcersAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 18:35SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Logan Couture · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:45COLValeri NichushkinENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:20COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:12SJSJeffrey Viel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:41COLKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:41SJSJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:49COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:49SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:33COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:13COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:39COLJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:55COLAndre Burakovsky: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:13
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – O'Connor7:48
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Aube-Kubel3:40
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Compher – Sturm – Newhook8:04
xG 0.34–0.34 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:55
xG 1.23–0.55 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 1–2
- Manson – Murray12:04
xG 0.37–0.28 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Johnson9:26
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Nieto – Viel – Gadjovich2:39
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Viel – Gadjovich – Reedy2:42
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Dahlen2:39
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Barabanov7:52
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Middleton9:13
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Burns – Karlsson2:12
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Meloche11:48
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).