Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 111 | 28 | 428 |
| CBJ | 213 | 17 | 27 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Eric Robinson, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:36STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 15:14CBJGustav NyquistPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:52CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 13:43STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Justin Faulk, David Perron · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 6:59CBJSean KuralyAssists: Eric Robinson, Emil Bemstrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 8:03STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 12:24CBJJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 18:40STLDavid PerronAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:34STLJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:01CBJJake Bean: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:35STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:48STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P2 18:13CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:29CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:49STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Toropchenko3:52
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad4:18
xG 0.12–0.06 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Buchnevich – Barbashev2:04
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas5:29
xG 0.22–0.25 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko4:04
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Faulk – Walman3:31
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug9:21
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Bemstrom – Robinson9:15
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Roslovic – Laine11:47
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Voracek – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger10:16
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Domi – Danforth – Chinakhov8:08
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Bean13:40
xG 0.73–0.61 (54%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Werenski – Peeke16:38
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Kukan8:18
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).