Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 09 | 210 | 328 |
| EDM | 19 | 113 | 418 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:50NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:48EDMEvander KaneAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 0:26NJDJesper BrattAssists: Ryan Graves, Andreas Johnsson · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 3:14NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 9:04EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Kris Russell, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 12:03EDMEvander KanePPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 12:52EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi · Deflected, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 18:34EDMConnor McDavidENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:52EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:25EDMJosh Archibald: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:25NJDTy Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:44EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:44NJDMason Geertsen: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:58EDMDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
- P2 15:07EDMZack Kassian: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:32NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Hischier11:17
xG 1.45–0.28 (84%)attempts 20–8goals 3–0
- Geertsen – Bastian – McLeod2:35
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Vesey – Boqvist11:16
xG 0.32–0.67 (33%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer12:48
xG 0.50–1.21 (29%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Smith10:07
xG 0.61–0.32 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Subban – Graves2:23
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Smith2:28
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi11:50
xG 1.07–0.49 (69%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Shore – Foegele – Ryan6:29
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Kassian – Archibald – McLeod2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Kassian – McDavid4:32
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse16:57
xG 1.02–0.84 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 3–2
- Russell – Barrie16:22
xG 0.84–0.83 (50%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Keith – Bouchard13:07
xG 0.74–0.81 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).