Sun, Mar 20, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Dallas Stars 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 211 | 110 | 02 | 323 |
| WSH | 09 | 115 | 114 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Esa Lindell, Marián Studenic · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:55DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 4:53WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 10:38DALRoope HintzPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 8:56WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:04DALJani Hakanpää: Holding2 min
- P1 9:25DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:15WSHMartin Fehérváry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43DALAlexander Radulov: Holding2 min
- P2 4:30DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:11WSHNick Jensen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:39WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:01DALMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:39WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:39DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Studenic6:41
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Seguin – Gurianov – Peterson9:03
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl7:42
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:10
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Hanley2:37
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Hakanpää15:35
xG 0.90–0.86 (51%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Sekera – Hanley7:22
xG 0.22–0.22 (51%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – Mantha4:08
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary4:27
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Leason – McMichael4:28
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Sheary – Hathaway8:01
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Kempny7:50
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:37
xG 0.74–0.73 (50%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen12:43
xG 0.69–0.76 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).