Sun, Mar 20, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 110 | 05 | 11 | 329 |
| VAN | 013 | 27 | 012 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Victor Olofsson, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:31VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Conor Garland, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:55BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 13:32VANBo HorvatPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 0:48BUFRasmus DahlinGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:22VANBrad Hunt: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:31VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:31BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:55VANVasily Podkolzin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 12:45BUFJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:25BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson8:20
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt9:04
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens9:46
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons8:51
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin14:12
xG 1.00–0.66 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Bryson – Samuelsson12:54
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Butcher13:21
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Petan – Podkolzin6:59
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Garland11:57
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Motte – Lammikko – Highmore10:45
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Horvat – Boeser – Pettersson12:06
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson16:58
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes14:45
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hunt – Juulsen12:04
xG 0.13–0.89 (12%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).