Mon, Mar 21, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 013 | 09 | 028 |
| MIN | 115 | 010 | 211 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43MINNicolas DeslauriersGWGAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 5:46MINMathew DumbaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 19:53MINRyan HartmanENAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.72 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:38VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P1 10:38MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:49MINAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:43VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:59MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:35VGKBrett Howden: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Eichel13:52
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Patrick6:21
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Howden – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg5:16
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Carrier – Roy8:52
xG 0.12–0.62 (16%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore4:19
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton11:49
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Hutton – Coghlan3:59
xG 0.02–0.06 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:32
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:34
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Jost – Duhaime7:35
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy7:48
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Merrill15:59
xG 1.01–0.36 (74%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon12:43
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:15
xG 0.07–0.57 (11%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).