Mon, Mar 21, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 26 | 09 | 00 | 225 |
| COL | 111 | 16 | 011 | 13 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:42COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:07EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:24COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 9:01EDMEvander KaneAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- OT 0:52COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:42COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:40EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:50EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:07COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:30EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:18EDMKailer Yamamoto: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:18COLCale Makar: Embellishment2 min
- P2 17:29EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:07EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Yamamoto13:46
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Malone – Kassian – McLeod3:54
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Foegele2:37
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi8:54
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Bouchard13:17
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Russell – Barrie13:55
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:59
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen11:28
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – O'Connor6:32
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Compher – Sturm – Newhook8:11
xG 0.09–0.27 (24%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar17:34
xG 0.95–0.29 (76%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson5:58
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson9:08
xG 0.02–0.51 (3%)attempts 1–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).