Mon, Mar 21, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 112 | 49 | 631 |
| ANA | 110 | 110 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18ANADerek GrantAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 16:48NSHRoman JosiAssists: Philip Tomasino, Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:02NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.39 xG2–1
- P2 11:26ANATroy TerryAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:45NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 3:08NSHMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 10:13ANADerek GrantAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 11:23NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 17:57NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.79 xG6–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:50NSHMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:11ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:11NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:49ANAMaxime Comtois: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 16:05NSHMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 16:05ANAAndrej Sustr: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05NSHMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:29ANAVinni Lettieri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:33NSHMikael Granlund: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:55NSHJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
- P3 11:01ANAGerry Mayhew: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:38ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:50ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:50NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot7:18
xG 0.43–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen9:04
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg10:16
xG 0.66–0.86 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Cousins – McCarron – Tomasino8:53
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Tennyson10:28
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Josi – Carrier2:02
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Carrier13:05
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Terry – Zegras8:24
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Carrick – Steel – Lundeström6:04
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Grant – Terry2:11
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- O'Regan – Robinson – Lettieri3:32
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSustr – Benoit13:27
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:46
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura11:59
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).