Tue, Mar 22, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
St. Louis Blues 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 215 | 210 | 113 | 538 |
| WSH | 213 | 04 | 04 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:48STLBrandon SaadUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 13:01WSHTom WilsonAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 17:15STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Brandon Saad, David Perron · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 10:31STLNathan WalkerGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 17:13STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 19:31STLDavid PerronENAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:10STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37WSHMichal Kempny: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:05STLAlexey Toropchenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:05STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:05WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:00WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31WSHAnthony Mantha: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:44STLJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44WSHAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:52WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou8:04
xG 0.94–0.24 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Walker2:06
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad9:04
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- MacEachern – Brown – Kyrou2:37
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Faulk5:52
xG 0.64–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug4:35
xG 0.38–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Leddy – Faulk3:40
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:12
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Johansson – Sheary – McMichael2:49
xG 0.00–0.04 (8%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Mantha6:29
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby8:03
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry10:48
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Schultz – Kempny5:44
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Schultz – Orlov4:58
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).