Tue, Mar 22, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 011 | 25 | 325 |
| DAL | 07 | 211 | 310 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:31EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:37DALJason RobertsonAssists: Jamie Benn, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:57DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 6:14EDMEvander KaneSHAssists: Connor McDavid, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 6:57EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Devin Shore · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 14:38DALRoope HintzAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 15:02DALDenis GurianovGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:41DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:10EDMDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:22DALAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:41EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:13EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P2 19:07DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:47EDMDevin Shore: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:36DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Yamamoto12:35
xG 1.03–0.72 (59%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi13:24
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Shore – Foegele – Ryan6:39
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Malone – Kassian – McLeod3:19
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Barrie11:10
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Bouchard15:44
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse15:53
xG 1.20–1.46 (45%)attempts 16–22goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Gurianov – Peterson7:53
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Studenic7:44
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl9:15
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:12
xG 0.69–0.93 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Lindell2:06
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:15
xG 0.97–0.83 (54%)attempts 14–14goals 3–0
- Sekera – Hanley7:08
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).