Wed, Mar 23, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 09 | 39 | 327 |
| COL | 011 | 012 | 110 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:23VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 3:15VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Conor Garland · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–0
- P3 6:15COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 19:42VANBo HorvatENAssists: J.T. Miller, Tanner Pearson · Backhand, 0.79 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:13COLNathan MacKinnon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:50VANNic Petan: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:42COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:42VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03VANQuinn Hughes: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:51VANQuinn Hughes: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:00VANVasily Podkolzin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:12VANLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Boeser – Pettersson9:59
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Pearson – Garland10:48
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lammikko – Highmore6:20
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Petan – Podkolzin5:37
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson13:59
xG 0.96–0.76 (56%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Hunt – Dermott10:12
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Hughes13:03
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Helm – Aube-Kubel4:41
xG 0.33–0.15 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen11:16
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- O'Connor – Sturm – Newhook4:43
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher4:59
xG 0.15–0.58 (20%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:21
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews2:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson9:26
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).