Thu, Mar 24, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 115 | 216 | 111 | 442 |
| MTL | 17 | 114 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 0:36FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Robert Hagg, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:12FLAMason MarchmentUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:59MTLJake EvansAssists: Alexander Romanov, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 7:06FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Ben Chiarot, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 7:20FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 16:20MTLPaul ByronAssists: Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:20FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 2:35MTLLaurent Dauphin: Holding2 min
- P1 8:19MTLCorey Schueneman: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:22MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:08FLAAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:48MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:15FLABen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:38FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P3 7:00MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:05FLACarter Verhaeghe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:51MTLMichael Pezzetta: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Marchment – Luostarinen10:05
xG 0.94–0.09 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Verhaeghe – Barkov7:46
xG 0.69–0.17 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Acciari – Lomberg6:26
xG 0.86–0.52 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett8:41
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Weegar15:53
xG 1.76–0.72 (71%)attempts 28–13goals 1–0
- Gudas – Forsling10:51
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Hagg – Montour10:04
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Armia – Dvorak5:45
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Dauphin – Pezzetta4:13
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Evans – Pitlick10:14
xG 0.62–0.61 (50%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield11:58
xG 0.65–0.91 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson7:03
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Schueneman2:24
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Romanov13:28
xG 0.76–0.95 (44%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).