Thu, Mar 24, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 15 | 26 | 00 | 1 | 415 |
| CAR | 018 | 116 | 29 | 04 | 0 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:30DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 6:44CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 2:43CARVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P3 3:43DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 10:24CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Brady Skjei, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 11:23DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 4. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 5. CAR Tony DeAngelo stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:04CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:46CARBrett Pesce: Instigator2 min
- P2 3:46DALVladislav Namestnikov: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:46DALVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:46CARBrett Pesce: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:46CARBrett Pesce: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:17CARVincent Trocheck: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 1:42DALAlexander Radulov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 8:18DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:09CARTony DeAngelo: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- OT 4:25CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov4:12
xG 0.06–0.15 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Seguin – Namestnikov – Gurianov7:28
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl9:26
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Studenic7:21
xG 0.03–0.38 (6%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Lindell19:30
xG 0.49–0.74 (40%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
- Sekera – Hanley10:38
xG 0.07–0.73 (9%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Hakanpää18:22
xG 0.71–2.14 (25%)attempts 10–35goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:58
xG 1.43–0.47 (75%)attempts 20–9goals 0–2
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast12:15
xG 0.86–0.01 (98%)attempts 21–3goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov13:29
xG 0.71–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Domi – Kotkaniemi10:05
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:44
xG 1.27–0.32 (80%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Cole – Bear11:23
xG 0.93–0.30 (75%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Slavin – DeAngelo13:50
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).