Thu, Mar 24, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 111 | 27 | 527 |
| STL | 04 | 212 | 012 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Kevin Connauton, Hayden Hodgson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:51PHIPatrick BrownAssists: Cam York, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 1:47STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:04PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Cam York · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:00STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Logan Brown · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 11:34PHIHayden HodgsonAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 17:20PHIJoel FarabeeENAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:40STLDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 2:45PHIOwen Tippett: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:12PHICam York: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:29PHIZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:51PHIJoel Farabee: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:51STLNiko Mikkola: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:43STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:34STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Willman – MacEwen4:28
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Willman – Tippett – Frost6:19
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Tippett – Frost2:02
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Atkinson – Farabee5:59
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York13:31
xG 0.95–0.46 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim14:31
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Connauton – Seeler2:58
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Brown – Toropchenko7:04
xG 0.62–0.07 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad9:23
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou8:16
xG 0.29–0.46 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas6:02
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Faulk9:47
xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola8:03
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Leddy – Faulk3:40
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).