Thu, Mar 24, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 010 | 18 | 00 | 228 |
| MIN | 18 | 113 | 014 | 11 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13VANBo HorvatAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 8:08MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:44MINKevin FialaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 7:56VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 0:31MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:47VANLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:47MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:26MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:26VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:36VANBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:24MINMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:48MINJordan Greenway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:50MINMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:24VANBo Horvat: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Petan – Podkolzin7:10
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Garland11:46
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Horvat – Boeser – Pettersson13:50
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lammikko – Highmore6:18
xG 0.00–0.75 (0%)attempts 1–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Hughes3:04
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hunt – Dermott8:46
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson16:19
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy8:02
xG 0.40–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:52
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:45
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Jost – Duhaime7:44
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:59
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Merrill13:36
xG 0.95–0.46 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:49
xG 0.02–0.44 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).