Fri, Mar 25, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 110 | 111 | 331 |
| COL | 418 | 118 | 115 | 651 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:20COLNazem KadriAssists: J.T. Compher, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:02PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Joel Farabee, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 13:46COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 16:17COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Nazem Kadri, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P1 18:06COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 12:19COLKurtis MacDermidAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Darren Helm · Slap, 0.03 xG1–5
- P2 19:28PHIZack MacEwenAssists: Cam York · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 7:44PHIMax WillmanAssists: Travis Sanheim, Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 8:25COLCale MakarAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:41PHIKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:40PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:36COLJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25PHIZack MacEwen: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:35PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:35COLNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:35COLNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Farabee
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Brown – Willman – MacEwen2:15
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Willman – Tippett – Frost8:57
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Hayes – Lindblom – Hodgson10:54
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Atkinson – Farabee10:32
xG 0.49–1.04 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Seeler3:17
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:22
xG 0.88–1.09 (45%)attempts 13–31goals 1–0
- Provorov – York13:38
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:55
xG 1.13–0.64 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor3:11
xG 0.14–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- O'Connor – Sturm – Newhook2:51
xG 0.03–0.00 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher7:07
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 17–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar20:28
xG 1.22–0.81 (60%)attempts 22–18goals 1–2
- Johnson – Manson13:30
xG 0.63–0.75 (46%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).