Sat, Mar 26, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 19 | 15 | 327 |
| BOS | 219 | 417 | 08 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03BOSCraig SmithAssists: Brandon Carlo, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:26BOSTaylor HallPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 19:48NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 2:13BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Erik Haula, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 3:56BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 5:12NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.44 xG2–4
- P2 14:33BOSErik HaulaAssists: David Pastrnak, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.13 xG2–5
- P2 18:18BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 14:43NYIZach ParisePPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.23 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:02NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:19NYIAndy Greene: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:06BOSCurtis Lazar: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:06NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:06BOSNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:11BOSTrent Frederic: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 9:34NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
- P3 13:10BOSNick Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 13:10BOSNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:10NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:35BOSTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Johnston9:47
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau10:20
xG 0.06–0.64 (9%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:39
xG 0.38–1.04 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier10:32
xG 0.34–1.25 (21%)attempts 6–23goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock8:06
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Greene – Dobson2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Pelech5:13
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic12:05
xG 1.56–0.08 (95%)attempts 26–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk10:01
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek8:59
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak11:46
xG 0.79–0.56 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo13:05
xG 1.96–0.79 (71%)attempts 26–11goals 2–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy13:32
xG 1.13–0.25 (82%)attempts 20–11goals 2–1
- Forbort – Clifton16:54
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).