Sat, Mar 26, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 019 | 212 | 115 | 03 | 1 | 449 |
| OTT | 28 | 17 | 04 | 03 | 0 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 15:26OTTArtem ZubAssists: Josh Norris, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 6:47OTTDylan GambrellAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 8:55FLAAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 9:57FLAPatric HornqvistAssists: Gustav Forsling, Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 17:44FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Josh Norris stopped
- 2. FLA Claude Giroux stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. OTT Brady Tkachuk stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:44FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:11OTTConnor Brown: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:31FLAClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:49FLANoel Acciari: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 8:11OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- OT 3:33FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Acciari – Lomberg7:50
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett7:25
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Giroux – Verhaeghe – Barkov9:13
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Marchment – Luostarinen9:56
xG 0.41–0.44 (49%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Montour9:16
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling11:36
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Montour – Forsling2:23
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Tierney – White – Joseph8:09
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk2:42
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk9:56
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Ennis – Watson – Gambrell5:52
xG 0.13–0.52 (20%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub12:33
xG 1.41–0.76 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Hamonic13:10
xG 0.46–0.86 (35%)attempts 8–24goals 1–0
- Holden – Zaitsev15:01
xG 0.34–1.38 (20%)attempts 6–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).