Sat, Mar 26, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 7, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 314 | 35 | 728 |
| STL | 09 | 18 | 115 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37CARMartin NecasSHAssists: Jesper Fast, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:07CARSeth JarvisAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:16CARBrett PesceGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 13:12STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Nick Leddy, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 14:38CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 6:30STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 15:05CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
- P3 15:57CARNino NiederreiterENAssists: Brett Pesce, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.77 xG6–2
- P3 17:55CARSeth JarvisAssists: Ian Cole, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.11 xG7–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:14CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P1 7:37CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
- P2 5:57CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:57STLAlexey Toropchenko: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:57CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:57CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Instigator2 min
- P2 11:48CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:02STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast10:12
xG 0.53–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Domi – Kotkaniemi6:46
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov11:46
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis11:04
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 7–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce12:12
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo16:10
xG 0.76–0.89 (46%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Cole – Bear14:32
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Saad9:51
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:52
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 0–2
- Walker – Brown – Toropchenko7:37
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Schenn – Barbashev – Kyrou9:56
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko12:43
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Scandella – Parayko3:12
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk2:30
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).