Sat, Mar 26, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 214 | 19 | 02 | 434 |
| VGK | 09 | 08 | 414 | 13 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:02CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Jake McCabe, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 14:52CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 18:16CHIDylan StromeAssists: Caleb Jones, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 1:24VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 2:23VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Dylan Coghlan, Jonathan Marchessault · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 3:16VGKJack EichelAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 8:53CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 9:40VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Nicolas Roy, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 2:05VGKEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 2:20CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:36VGKAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:18CHIDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Strome – DeBrincat14:53
xG 1.47–0.46 (76%)attempts 24–14goals 2–1
- Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson5:15
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Toews – Kubalik – Raddysh12:31
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Borgstrom – Dach9:59
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Stillman6:40
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones3:06
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Stillman7:30
xG 0.51–0.66 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Janmark – Carrier7:01
xG 0.90–0.09 (91%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Eichel6:26
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Amadio6:17
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Kolesar7:18
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore3:09
xG 0.47–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud11:08
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Theodore – Whitecloud3:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).