Sun, Mar 27, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 19 | 016 | 236 |
| TOR | 17 | 213 | 25 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49TORMorgan RiellyAssists: TJ Brodie, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:11FLABrandon MontourAssists: Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 1:27FLARyan LombergAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 5:10TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 11:12TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 9:12TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Mitch Marner, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:59TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:34TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:44TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P2 3:50FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:29FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:40FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:40TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:24TORPierre Engvall: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Huberdeau – Barkov3:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett7:51
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Bennett2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Verhaeghe – Barkov6:53
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Montour7:44
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Montour – Forsling2:44
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Weegar – Forsling3:00
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews10:12
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Nylander – Engvall – Kampf7:46
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev10:32
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Blackwell5:18
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren11:17
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Rielly – Lyubushkin14:13
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Brodie – Holl13:12
xG 0.28–0.47 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).