Sun, Mar 27, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 11
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 013 | 213 | 09 | 235 |
| PIT | 28 | 512 | 415 | 1135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Danton Heinen, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:23PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Radim Zohorna, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 1:48PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 3:18PITJeff CarterSHAssists: Teddy Blueger, John Marino · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P2 5:57PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
- P2 7:53PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–6
- P2 11:37DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Jakub Vrana · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–6
- P2 18:04DETJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
- P2 19:21PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–7
- P3 2:06PITDanton HeinenPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–8
- P3 5:51PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.06 xG2–9
- P3 7:15PITBrian BoyleAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Teddy Blueger · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–10
- P3 17:08PITRickard RakellAssists: Radim Zohorna, John Marino · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–11
Penalties (10)
- P2 1:44DETPius Suter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:46PITBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 5:21DETAdam Erne: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:39PITEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:22PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:43DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:31DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:23PITChad Ruhwedel: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:56PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:53DETMichael Rasmussen: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:09
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 19–6goals 0–2
- Gagner – Erne – Veleno7:25
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Vrana – Suter8:33
xG 0.32–0.58 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Rasmussen – Zadina – Hirose5:15
xG 0.01–0.48 (2%)attempts 1–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJuolevi – Lindstrom2:24
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Juolevi – Hronek11:45
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Walman – Lindstrom11:11
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kapanen – Heinen7:43
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Boyle – Blueger – Zohorna6:11
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 2–1
- Crosby – Guentzel – Rodrigues8:33
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rust – Rakell8:44
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson8:15
xG 0.45–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Marino3:38
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Matheson – Pettersson2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).