Sun, Mar 27, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 24 | 210 | 09 | 423 |
| NSH | 014 | 414 | 17 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15PHITravis SanheimAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:27PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Cam Atkinson, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 0:41NSHYakov TreninAssists: Roman Josi, Tanner Jeannot · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 2:23PHIMax WillmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P2 7:26NSHYakov TreninAssists: Mikael Granlund, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 8:12NSHLuke KuninAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 18:13NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 19:12PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Travis Konecny, Kevin Connauton · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 18:41NSHTanner JeannotGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Alexandre Carrier · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:07PHICam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:39NSHLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:39PHIPatrick Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:00PHIHayden Hodgson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:29NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min
- P3 0:24PHIHayden Hodgson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:24NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Tippett – Frost9:21
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Atkinson – Farabee11:23
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Hayes – Hodgson – Konecny11:50
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
- Brown – Willman – MacEwen9:12
xG 0.05–0.84 (6%)attempts 3–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Connauton8:22
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:50
xG 0.63–1.00 (38%)attempts 12–23goals 2–1
- Provorov – York18:37
xG 0.18–1.00 (15%)attempts 6–23goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Forsberg13:16
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 22–4goals 1–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:04
xG 0.59–0.10 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen11:16
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Cousins – McCarron – Tomasino6:17
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Lauzon17:52
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Josi – Carrier19:07
xG 0.88–0.51 (63%)attempts 19–14goals 2–1
- Benning – Davies8:41
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).