Sun, Mar 27, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 014 | 014 | 214 | 00 | 242 |
| MIN | 08 | 16 | 114 | 11 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:07MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 6:21COLNazem KadriAssists: J.T. Compher, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 10:03COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 14:33MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 0:15MINKevin FialaPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:57MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:16COLCale Makar: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:30COLJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:45MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:46MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 5:46COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:13COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 10:01MINJake Middleton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:34COLErik Johnson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Sturm – Newhook5:05
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher8:22
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:01
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor2:27
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar8:15
xG 0.55–0.06 (91%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Manson3:31
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Makar2:41
xG 0.04–0.01 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:01
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy9:22
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Jost – Duhaime7:40
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:46
xG 0.14–0.86 (14%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:56
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:42
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Merrill13:55
xG 0.52–0.94 (36%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).