Mon, Mar 28, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 313 | 16 | 629 |
| WSH | 05 | 115 | 06 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41CARDerek StepanAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Max Domi · Slap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 7:47CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 6:47WSHTom WilsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 8:35CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 10:38CARBrett PesceAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.27 xG4–1
- P2 15:39CARMartin NecasAssists: Max Domi, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 9:57CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Martin Necas, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.01 xG6–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:51CARBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:38WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:41CARMartin Necas: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:51CARMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:56WSHConnor McMichael: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 9:56CARBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:42WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:00CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:36WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:19WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:19CARBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:58WSHLars Eller: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Domi – Kotkaniemi8:37
xG 0.98–0.42 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast10:25
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis6:43
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov10:42
xG 0.86–1.20 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Smith11:01
xG 1.12–0.54 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Slavin – DeAngelo11:33
xG 0.61–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce12:08
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson7:44
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Eller – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby9:21
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sheary – McMichael8:46
xG 0.90–1.01 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha8:27
xG 0.10–0.72 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen9:14
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Jensen – Kempny5:33
xG 0.04–0.19 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Kempny10:54
xG 0.04–0.74 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).