Mon, Mar 28, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 6, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 315 | 314 | 637 |
| CHI | 38 | 15 | 18 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53CHICalvin de HaanAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Dominik Kubalik · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:44CHISam LaffertyAssists: Jake McCabe, Reese Johnson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 16:55CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Dominik Kubalik · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 1:21CHISeth JonesAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 4:50BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Henri Jokiharju · Slap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 10:24BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 14:32BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Dylan Cozens, Will Butcher · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 2:39BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Backhand, 0.28 xG4–4
- P3 10:56CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 17:46BUFAlex TuchAssists: Victor Olofsson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
- P3 19:48BUFTage ThompsonPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.05 xG6–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:22BUFCasey Fitzgerald: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:24CHICaleb Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:35CHIBoris Katchouk: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:40BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:51CHIDylan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Hinostroza – Thompson7:35
xG 0.76–0.10 (88%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Okposo – Krebs – Cozens6:56
xG 0.43–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson4:51
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons5:22
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin17:58
xG 1.20–0.16 (88%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Butcher – Fitzgerald13:00
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Bryson – Samuelsson13:45
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Katchouk – Johnson12:50
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat13:03
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Borgstrom – Kurashev7:00
xG 0.00–0.50 (0%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Toews – Kubalik – Raddysh11:15
xG 0.15–1.14 (11%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones5:01
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones11:03
xG 0.15–0.42 (27%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- de Haan – McCabe7:54
xG 0.08–0.36 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).