Tue, Mar 29, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 314 | 07 | 632 |
| BOS | 110 | 19 | 211 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:09TORColin BlackwellAssists: Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 5:59BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:43TORMorgan RiellyAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P1 18:44TORAlexander KerfootUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 8:28TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 16:00TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.35 xG5–1
- P2 16:47TORDavid KampfAssists: Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.05 xG6–1
- P2 18:19BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Deflected, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 13:02BOSCurtis LazarAssists: Connor Clifton, Tomas Nosek · Tip-in, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 17:38BOSTaylor HallAssists: David Pastrnak, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:47TORMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:34BOSCraig Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:34TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:09BOSDavid Pastrnak: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:00TORIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 13:12TORJustin Holl: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:12BOSCharlie Coyle: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:18BOSTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44BOSCharlie McAvoy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:44TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:29TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:20BOSErik Haula: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev7:12
xG 0.56–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Clifford – Blackwell6:54
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews8:08
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Nylander – Engvall – Kampf7:57
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren13:03
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin7:45
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Holl10:31
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hall – Pastrnak9:24
xG 0.95–0.51 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk7:17
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic9:49
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Foligno – Lazar – Nosek7:25
xG 0.19–0.50 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy9:26
xG 0.91–0.22 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy5:26
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Forbort – Clifton10:02
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).