Tue, Mar 29, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 35 | 06 | 424 |
| FLA | 214 | 219 | 313 | 746 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:32MTLChris WidemanAssists: Jesse Ylonen, Laurent Dauphin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:17FLAJonathan HuberdeauSHAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 17:57FLARyan LombergAssists: Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 2:37FLASam BennettAssists: Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 7:57FLARyan LombergAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 16:24MTLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Justin Barron · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 16:55MTLLaurent DauphinAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Chris Wideman · Snap, 0.28 xG3–4
- P2 18:06MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Rem Pitlick, David Savard · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 1:19FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Ryan Lomberg · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–5
- P3 14:43FLAMason MarchmentAssists: Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.22 xG4–6
- P3 17:26FLAAleksander BarkovENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.79 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:33FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:33MTLAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:13MTLDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:06FLANoel Acciari: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:35MTLChris Wideman: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:41FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:50MTLChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:20MTLDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Perreault – Dauphin – Ylonen5:50
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 2–0
- Anderson – Dvorak – Pitlick12:14
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Byron – Armia – Evans6:46
xG 0.07–0.46 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Caufield11:02
xG 0.59–1.46 (29%)attempts 10–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Savard – Romanov18:44
xG 1.42–1.70 (46%)attempts 15–21goals 1–2
- Wideman – Schueneman9:34
xG 0.33–0.87 (28%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Barron15:10
xG 0.64–2.25 (22%)attempts 11–25goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Lomberg – Luostarinen3:21
xG 1.03–0.05 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Verhaeghe – Barkov7:40
xG 0.91–0.02 (97%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Bennett – Marchment3:19
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Thornton – Acciari – Lomberg2:28
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling8:00
xG 2.03–0.41 (83%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Hagg – Montour11:00
xG 1.29–0.54 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Weegar – Forsling6:39
xG 0.76–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).