Tue, Mar 29, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 29 | 18 | 326 |
| PIT | 15 | 08 | 111 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24PITBrian BoyleAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 13:32NYRFrank VatranoAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:04NYRBraden SchneiderAssists: Artemi Panarin, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 1:06NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 10:37PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 9:45NYRRyan Lindgren: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PITMike Matheson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00PITJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:02NYRBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:04NYRAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Hunt – Panarin12:09
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vatrano11:59
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Reaves – Motte – Brodzinski7:06
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Chytil – Lafrenière9:58
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller18:26
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Schneider10:04
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:54
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Rakell8:59
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Malkin – Rakell – Kapanen2:57
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Blueger – Zohorna6:39
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel2:37
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:42
xG 0.74–0.28 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson10:34
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Matheson2:14
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).