Tue, Mar 29, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 214 | 03 | 429 |
| CBJ | 117 | 112 | 116 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:20CBJVladislav GavrikovAssists: Patrik Laine, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 11:47NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:09NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:47NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 9:10NYIZach PariseGWGAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 13:32CBJVladislav GavrikovAssists: Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 4:30CBJOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:56CBJSean Kuraly: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:13NYIKieffer Bellows: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:30CBJPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:22NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:14CBJCole Sillinger: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:25NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:38CBJPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Martin – Cizikas – Bellows7:39
xG 0.16–0.35 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau10:04
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom10:07
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier12:12
xG 0.49–0.69 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Hutton10:45
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:46
xG 0.78–0.85 (48%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
- Chara – Dobson16:57
xG 0.63–0.96 (40%)attempts 13–21goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Danforth – Robinson7:39
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger10:17
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
- Voracek – Roslovic – Laine15:06
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Gaunce – Bemstrom – Chinakhov4:52
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKukan – Bean14:38
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke19:37
xG 1.08–0.91 (54%)attempts 21–20goals 2–2
- Carlsson – Boqvist10:22
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).