Tue, Mar 29, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 04 | 117 | 133 |
| MIN | 216 | 213 | 08 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29MINMathew DumbaAssists: Matt Boldy, Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 16:23MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 1:35MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 18:49MINKevin FialaAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Frederick Gaudreau · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 4:21PHIMorgan FrostPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:12PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:12MINNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:04PHIIvan Provorov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:15MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:08PHIPatrick Brown: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:45PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:00MINTyson Jost: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 8:14MINJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Cates – Farabee2:58
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Hodgson – Konecny3:15
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Hodgson – MacEwen6:47
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Cates6:36
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York6:21
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – York3:20
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen2:05
xG 0.01–0.01 (39%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:34
xG 0.99–0.13 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:24
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Jost – Duhaime7:25
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy9:54
xG 0.51–1.35 (28%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton13:04
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:22
xG 0.93–1.02 (48%)attempts 20–20goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Merrill13:46
xG 0.57–0.81 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).