Wed, Mar 30, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 211 | 010 | 01 | 3 | 327 |
| BUF | 113 | 19 | 09 | 06 | 2 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:39BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Will Butcher, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:13WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 8:24BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:39WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Ville Heinola · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. WPG Pierre-Luc Dubois scored
- 3. BUF Victor Olofsson scored
- 4. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
- 6. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:19BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:19WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:53BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:12WPGJansen Harkins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 0:35WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Svechnikov – Appleton7:14
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Sanford – Dubois12:48
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Lowry – Ehlers – Appleton5:13
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Scheifele – Svechnikov5:09
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:50
xG 1.05–0.78 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Dillon – Stanley14:02
xG 0.41–0.82 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Pionk – Heinola17:34
xG 0.51–1.15 (31%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Krebs – Cozens10:29
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt9:42
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:28
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Mittelstadt2:05
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Bryson13:23
xG 0.54–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:32
xG 1.14–0.91 (56%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Fitzgerald – Dahlin2:51
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).