Wed, Mar 30, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 111 | 113 | 11 | 534 |
| DET | 28 | 111 | 15 | 02 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23NYRRyan ReavesUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:59DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Taro Hirose, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:23DETJakub VranaPPAssists: Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 17:34NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Braden Schneider · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 0:29DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 12:15NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Frank Vatrano, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 5:56DETAdam ErneAssists: Marc Staal, Pius Suter · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 16:22NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 1:34NYRAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:26NYRAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53NYRGreg McKegg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:38DETGustav Lindstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:26NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:47DETGustav Lindstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Vatrano – Panarin2:50
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Motte7:39
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vatrano9:49
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Copp – Hunt – Panarin8:23
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller19:08
xG 1.06–0.38 (74%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren16:26
xG 0.98–0.62 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Schneider12:04
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno10:41
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond13:54
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Rasmussen – Zadina – Hirose5:08
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Erne – Suter12:05
xG 0.07–0.63 (10%)attempts 1–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Walman – Lindstrom12:56
xG 0.43–0.75 (37%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Seider16:02
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
- Staal – Hronek15:43
xG 0.26–1.41 (15%)attempts 12–21goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).