Wed, Mar 30, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Seattle Kraken 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 114 | 210 | 330 |
| SEA | 07 | 09 | 06 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:38VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Jonas Rondbjerg · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P3 7:03VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 19:33VGKJonathan MarchessaultENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:18SEAAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:37SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:37VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:23SEAWill Borgen: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:31VGKShea Theodore: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:38SEARyan Donato: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Amadio10:40
xG 1.19–0.22 (85%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Janmark – Roy – Rondbjerg6:22
xG 0.75–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Eichel9:32
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Roy2:41
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hutton12:19
xG 0.85–0.23 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud15:58
xG 1.23–0.65 (66%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:01
xG 0.92–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Donskoi – Sprong6:07
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Sprong – Kuhlman2:09
xG 0.02–0.02 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Wennberg – Donato5:35
xG 0.23–0.24 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Donato – Lind – Geekie3:44
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pouliot – Borgen10:43
xG 0.60–0.70 (46%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:06
xG 0.65–0.84 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Soucy13:25
xG 0.33–1.05 (24%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).