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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 31, 2022·TD Garden, Boston

New Jersey Devils 1, Boston Bruins 8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.

BOS winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD1701009126
BOS212616012840

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:57BOSMatt GrzelcykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:02NJDJack HughesAssists: Nico Hischier, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:09BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:22BOSErik HaulaAssists: David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
  5. P2 6:33BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P2 9:01BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–5
  7. P2 10:34BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Mike Reilly, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.06 xG1–6
  8. P2 12:04BOSMarc McLaughlinAssists: Trent Frederic · Snap, 0.17 xG1–7
  9. P2 16:12BOSTaylor HallAssists: David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–8
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 2:56BOSJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:56NJDMason Geertsen: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:16NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 4:16BOSMike Reilly: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 4:16BOSMike Reilly: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 8:49BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
  7. P2 2:44NJDP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
  8. P2 8:30NJDJesper Boqvist: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
  9. P3 1:10BOSErik Haula: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 7:26NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 17:03BOSCharlie Coyle: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 17:03NJDMason Geertsen: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
48% to win52% to win
← NJD attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Hischier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDBOS
26Shots on goal40
2.0Expected goals3.5
43Shot attempts64
27Faceoffs won42
3Power plays3
23Penalty minutes23
20Hits23
13Blocked shots6
15Giveaways10
6Takeaways14

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. bestBratt – Sharangovich – Hughes4:11

    xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  2. Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer6:23

    xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2

  3. Tatar – Hischier – Mercer5:21

    xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1

  4. Vesey – Wood – Boqvist9:00

    xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamilton – Graves2:46

    xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  2. Subban – Smith11:20

    xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1

  3. Hamilton – Siegenthaler10:11

    xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:49

    xG 1.16–0.22 (84%)attempts 19–4goals 3–0

  2. Haula – Hall – Pastrnak10:32

    xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0

  3. Coyle – Frederic – McLaughlin10:29

    xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0

  4. Blidh – Lazar – Nosek9:52

    xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGrzelcyk – Carlo12:57

    xG 1.09–0.45 (71%)attempts 19–10goals 3–0

  2. Lindholm – McAvoy14:46

    xG 0.84–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0

  3. Reilly – Brown8:29

    xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.5 xGNJD 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #959 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.02 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.

BOS winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).