Thu, Mar 31, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 214 | 013 | 232 |
| NYI | 214 | 010 | 312 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39NYISebastian AhoAssists: Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 8:50NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Zach Parise, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:47CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Eric Robinson, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 10:26CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Egor Chinakhov · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 3:16NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 9:52NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:03NYIRyan PulockENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:30CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:56NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:10NYIMathew Barzal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:19NYINoah Dobson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Roslovic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Danforth – Chinakhov10:48
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Gaunce – Bemstrom – Robinson9:34
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Voracek – Roslovic – Laine10:52
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger8:52
xG 0.22–1.29 (14%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gavrikov – Peeke16:45
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
- Carlsson – Boqvist10:50
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Kukan – Bean17:50
xG 0.85–1.85 (32%)attempts 17–21goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Barzal – Wahlstrom11:52
xG 1.26–0.24 (84%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Pageau11:15
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:33
xG 0.86–0.58 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Bellows7:39
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:47
xG 1.29–0.26 (83%)attempts 25–10goals 1–0
- Pulock – Aho2:27
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Chara – Dobson14:49
xG 0.59–0.72 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).