Thu, Mar 31, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 0, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 09 | 014 | 032 |
| CAR | 216 | 126 | 12 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:48CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 3:43CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 18:15CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.62 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:43MTLLaurent Dauphin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:46MTLJoel Edmundson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:40MTLNick Suzuki: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:46MTLJake Allen: Goalie removed own mask2 min
- P3 3:14CARDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:45CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:29CARVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Evans – Pitlick8:39
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dauphin – Ylonen4:47
xG 0.19–0.25 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Armia – Suzuki – Caufield8:58
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Byron – Anderson – Dvorak9:39
xG 0.37–0.96 (28%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edmundson – Barron12:51
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Savard – Schueneman2:28
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Wideman – Schueneman8:50
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast11:39
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis9:18
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Necas8:01
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Domi – Svechnikov9:25
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:25
xG 1.31–0.27 (83%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo13:00
xG 0.72–0.23 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Cole – Smith12:26
xG 0.59–0.60 (50%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).