Thu, Mar 31, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 216 | 07 | 17 | 439 |
| MIN | 114 | 110 | 15 | 02 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06PITRickard RakellAssists: John Marino, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:51MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 1:54PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 9:49PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 17:48MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 1:02MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:57PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, John Marino · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:48MINMats Zuccarello: Holding2 min
- P1 7:10PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P1 9:22PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:16PITEvan Rodrigues: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:32MINBrandon Duhaime: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:46MINBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:54MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:27PITJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:54MINDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell4:09
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Boyle – Blueger – Kapanen3:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel10:33
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Blueger2:12
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Letang – Dumoulin13:55
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Marino2:20
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Matheson – Marino11:15
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:08
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:30
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Jost – Duhaime6:13
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Kaprizov2:55
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton6:57
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba12:23
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Merrill3:59
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).