Thu, Mar 31, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 115 | 15 | 227 |
| COL | 016 | 112 | 318 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:54COLAlex NewhookAssists: Kurtis MacDermid, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 12:09SJSTimo MeierAssists: Tomas Hertl, Alexander Barabanov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 3:05COLDarren HelmAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 6:29SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 12:17COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 15:16COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Erik Johnson, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:28SJSRyan Merkley: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:54SJSJohn Leonard: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 8:06COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:43COLJ.T. Compher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:09SJSNicolas Meloche: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:30SJSAlexander Barabanov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:30COLCale Makar: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:30SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBalcers – Viel – Reedy3:00
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Nieto – Chmelevski9:41
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Bonino – Gregor – Leonard5:00
xG 0.02–0.25 (7%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
- Viel – Reedy – Leonard2:18
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Burns – Karlsson2:20
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Meloche7:50
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Merkley2:34
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin3:17
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor4:57
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen4:42
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Lehkonen4:24
xG 0.10–0.08 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Toews2:47
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar17:15
xG 0.96–0.66 (59%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Johnson3:25
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).