Fri, Apr 1, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 212 | 213 | 01 | 536 |
| EDM | 418 | 111 | 010 | 11 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50EDMZach HymanAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:29STLPavel BuchnevichUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 4:59EDMZach HymanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 10:07EDMEvander KaneSHAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Cody Ceci · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P1 13:30EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evander Kane, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 1:54STLRobert ThomasAssists: Brandon Saad, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 15:27STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P2 17:13EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Evander Kane, Cody Ceci · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–5
- P3 2:06STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 8:36STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Robert Bortuzzo · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–5
- OT 1:11EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.23 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:15EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:53STLCalle Rosen: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:48EDMCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:30EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:48STLRyan O'Reilly: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMacEachern – Walker – Brown6:15
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:25
xG 1.01–1.03 (49%)attempts 12–15goals 2–2
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad11:05
xG 0.40–1.08 (27%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Toropchenko12:27
xG 0.23–1.04 (18%)attempts 7–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko3:57
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Scandella – Parayko12:24
xG 0.59–0.65 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Rosen7:22
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:07
xG 1.16–0.58 (67%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:39
xG 0.91–0.92 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 2–2
- Brassard – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins9:49
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Archibald – Foegele – McLeod4:13
xG 0.00–0.29 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse14:40
xG 1.45–0.77 (65%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
- Barrie – Kulak13:59
xG 0.84–0.62 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 3–1
- Keith – Bouchard15:25
xG 0.82–0.85 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).